Fifteen lines of Ruby found plateaus I don't remember

There’s a small line under the weight chart on my /health page that reports how many plateaus the algorithm found in my own data. I wrote the code behind it. The first time I loaded the finished page, I scrolled back up to re-check the dates — because I didn’t remember being in half of them.

I wanted a definition of “plateau” that survives two-data-points-a-month sampling. What I shipped is fifteen lines of Ruby: anchor on the first weigh-in, walk forward, and keep the plateau alive as long as every later weigh-in stays within 2 lbs of the anchor. The first reading that drifts past 2 lbs closes the run and becomes the new anchor. If the closed run lasted at least 3 weeks, record it.

Both numbers — 2 lbs, 3 weeks — I picked, then argued with myself about.

Two pounds is about the day-to-day swing I see at my size from hydration, glycogen, and gut contents. Define a plateau tighter than that and you’re calling noise a signal; define it looser and you’re calling a real 3-lb drift a plateau. Two pounds is the narrowest band that sits mostly above the noise floor.

Three weeks is shakier. On a 1st-and-15th schedule, three weeks guarantees at least three weigh-ins inside the run — two points is a coincidence, three is a trend. Four weeks would’ve been more defensible. I went with three because I wanted the detector to find something, and a five-week floor would’ve found almost nothing in five years of data. That’s a thumb on the scale.

Run across all 135 weigh-ins back to October 2020, the obvious plateaus landed where I expected: a long flat stretch right before a cut, a shelf at the top of a bulk where the climb stalled and then resumed.

The ones I didn’t remember were the interesting ones. In each, the data said I’d held within 2 lbs for a month or more, and my memory said I was making progress. Memory lost. The chart had been sitting there the whole time; I’d just never asked it the right question.

And the shape of that problem is one I see at work constantly. A revenue cohort holds flat for six weeks while the rest of the business grows — is it a stable cohort, a saturated channel, or a metric that silently broke upstream and stopped updating? You want the detector that flags it early, not the one that surfaces it after the quarter closes and someone asks in a meeting why nobody caught it.

It fails the same ways, too. A travel week where I just didn’t weigh in reads as “stayed within 2 lbs,” because there’s no data point to disagree — I’ve got exactly one of those in the run. A real plateau can vanish because one bad reading, a miscalibrated scale or a sodium-heavy late dinner, pushed a weigh-in past the threshold and reset the anchor. And a 3-week minimum means I learn I’ve stalled after three weeks of stalling: useful in hindsight, useless for changing something this week.

Detecting a plateau in a sparse, noisy signal is hard, and a fifteen-line heuristic is a starting point, not an answer. A daily weigh-in stream would let me fit a rolling slope with a confidence interval, which is what I’d actually want. The data I have doesn’t support it. So the detector that exists is the one with two numbers I half-guessed.

I keep it in production anyway. So far it’s the only thing on this site that’s argued with my memory and won.